2023 Archive
January 4th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets are in a tricky spot here. 3800 is holding as support on SPX and VIX futures are in heavy Contango which is a good sign. Breadth indicators are hanging in there and there is some good strength in some underlying stocks. It seems the market heavyweights (AAPL, MSFT etc.) are dragging the indexes lower.
We’re also in a tough time of the month with only 2 weeks until January expiration and Feb expiration will be exposed to earnings for most companies, but hopefully we found some good ideas today.
New Case Studies were – AAPL and DIS Condors, Dow Wheel, FDX Bullish Calendar, JNJ Bull Call Spread and UNH Bearish Calendar. We also talked about closing some existing case studies.
January 11th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets are looking quite good with some strong looking stocks, indexes getting above key moving averages and breadth indicators all looking pretty strong. We might see some profit taking here after a good run, but I’m thinking if it comes, it will probably be short-lived. We are in one of the most bullish times of the year too.
New Case Studies today were – AMD Unbalanced Condors, AMZN Condor, GS Earnings Bull Put Spread, SPY March Condor, TGT Bullish Calendar, TSLA Earnings Condor and WMT Long Straddle.
January 18th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Big reversal today, but that was always on the cards after 7 straight up days. Need to see how the market responds in the next day or two. Keep an eye on breadth indicators and the VIX futures curve. The S&P 500 also closed right at the 50 day Ma today and the 21 Ma is just below, so let’s see if those provide any support.
New Case Studies today were – AMZN Earnings Diagonal Put Spread with optional call credit spread, IWM Broken Wing Butterfly, NFLX Earnings Double Calendar, OXY Long Strangle, QQQ Condor, SPY Put Ratio Backspread and a VIX Broken Wing Butterfly.
January 25th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market is acting surprisingly resilient. The bears could have easily taken control last week, but failed to do so. Breadth indicators all look pretty good and high beta growth stocks are acting well which indicates a risk on environment, at least for now.
With volatility quite low at the moment, it’s hard to find decent credit spread and condor ideas, so we looked at a few Earnings Condors and Diagonal Put Spreads this week. New Case Studies were – AAPL Poor Mans Covered Call, BX, MA and TSLA Earnings Condors, JPM Diagonal Put Spread, Meta Condor, MSFT Diagonal Put Spread and NFLX Calendar Spread.
February 1st, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Breadth indicators continue to look strong and the technical picture looks quite good. It doesn’t really match up with the fundamentals, so it’s still a good time to be cautious.
With volatility at six months lows, we have scaled back on credit spreads and condors in the last few weeks and have been looking more at Diagonals.
New Case Studies today were – AMZN, BA and MA Diagonal Put Spreads, QQQ Bullish Diagonal, SPY and TGT Condors and XOM Calendar.
February 8th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets are pulling back a little but so far breadth indicators are ok and VIX Term Structure is still in Contango. SPX 4100 is key support as are the 50 and 200 day moving averages if we get down that far.
New Case Studies today were AMGN and LLY Diagonal Put Spreads, D Bear Put Spread, ENPH Bear Call Spread, IWM Bearish Butterfly, LLY Diagonal Put Spread.
February 15th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Bears have certainly had their chances but have not been able to push the market lower. Bulls are in control for now and breadth indicators are looking good, but watch the SPXA50R as that is weakening a little bit.
New Case Studies today were – AAPL Diagonal Put Spread, ABBV Bearish Diagonal, AMAT Bullish Calendar, AXP Bearish Calendar, CAT Bullish Diagonal, EWA Wheel, LULU Unbalanced Condor, MCD Broken Wing Butterfly, OXY Bearish Diagonal and VIX Broken Wing Butterfly.
February 22nd, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – So far this pullback hasn’t lead to any major panic, but we have seen the VIX Futures Curve flatten and the numbers of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 MA has dropped below 50%. So we have a couple of warnings signs. Volatility has picked up which is great news for selling premium and means we can start looking at more credit spreads and condors etc.
New Case Studies today were – AVGO Bear Call Spread, FCX Bearish Diagonal, GOOGL Unbalanced Condor, IWM Trapdoor, PYPL Bear Call Spread, SPY Condor, TGT Jade Lizard, WDAY Earnings Straddle.
March 1st, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Breadth indicators are still flashing some warnings signs but so far key indexes are holding above their 200-day moving averages.
New Case Studies today were – ADBE Diagonal Put Spread, AMZN Bearish Calendar, COST Earnings Condor, EWU Wheel, NFLX Broken Wing Butterfly, O Wheel Trade and OIH Unbalanced Condor.
March 15th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Some of our breadth indicators continue to deteriorate, so be careful on the long side. VIX futures are still in heavy contango on the plus side.
New Case Studies today were – ANET Bullish Diagonal, DAL Wheel Trade with protection, IWM April Trapdoor (NEW), MCD Broken Wing Butterfly, SNOW Diagonal Put Spread, SPY Bearish Diagonal (Hedge), TSLA April Condor, VXX Bear Put Spread and VIX Broken Wing Butterfly.
March 22nd, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The Fed spoiled things once again today, but our Case Studies are all looking quite good. Our breadth indicators are still showing weakness and the S&P 500 reversed right at the bearish trendline. As always, stay nimble as things can change very quickly in this environment. Keep and eye on overall Delta Dollars and watch those price alerts.
New Case Studies today were – AVGO Diagonal Put Spread, NVDA Calendar Spread, SBUX Bearish Calendar, SMCI Bull Put Spread and TSLA Iron Condor.
March 29th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – SPX broke above the downtrend line today and our breadth indicators are showing improvement. Some individual tech names are looking quite bullish.
New Case Studies today were – AMZN Unbalanced Condor, GOOGL Condor, HD Long-Term Bull Put Spread, SCHW Sold Puts with Delta Hedge, SHOP Bullish Calendar, SPY Condor and UNH Unbalanced Condor.
April 5th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – We’ve had a slight pullback in the last few days which is not overly concerning, BUT our breadth indicators are showing a bit of weakness, so keep an eye on that. We are in heavy Contango which is a good sign.
New Case Studies today were – ABBV Long-Term Bull Put Spread, AMZN Calendar, DIS Bearish Calendar, IWM Trapdoor, MCD Broken Wing Butterfly, META Calendar Straddle, MRK Wheel, SCHW Sold Puts with Delta Hedge and TSAL Bearish Calendar.
April 12th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – VIX future are still in heavy Contango which is generally a good sign. I would like to see some improvement in breadth though. Quite a few stocks were showing up on the bearish 20 and 50-day moving average screeners as well.
New Case Studies were – AMZN Earnings Butterfly, JPM Earnings Condor, MMM Wheel Trade with Protection, NFLX Earnings Calendar, NVDA ‘Max Pain’ Butterfly, XLE Condor and IWM Trapdoor (but only for those that didn’t enter last week).
April 19th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Breadth indicators continue to hold up well and we are in heavy contango. VIX has really dropped in the last few days, but I’m concerned about complacency creeping in. The next vol spike could be just around the corner. Now is a good time to concentrate on managing existing positions and easing up on any short-vol trades.
New Case Studies today were – AMZN and GS Diagonal Put Spreads, IWM Long-term Condor, NFLX Bull Put Spread with Calendar, SPX Weekly Bear Call Spreads and VIX Butterfly.
April 26th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets have taken a bearish turn and we have a bearish MACD cross on the SPX. I think a target of 3950 in about 7-10 days time makes sense. Breadth has deteriorated, but the Nasdaq is holding up well thanks to earnings and was positive on the day. VIX is still in heavy Contango too.
New Case Studies today were – CMG Calendar, JPM Condor, SPY Bearish Diagonal, TSLA Bull Put Spread with Calendar, UPS Calendar, USB Wheel and RUT Rhino.
May 3rd, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Some mixed signals in the markets with breadth indicators deteriorating, but VIX futures still in heavy contango.
New Case Studies today were – ADBE Bear Call Spread or Unbalanced Condor, AMD Bull Put Spread with Calendar, FCX Wheel, IWM Trapdoor, LLY Bearish Calendar, MCD and MSFT Broken Wing Butterfly, Team Earnings Unbalanced Condor and VIX Butterfly.
May 10th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market continues to grind. It would be nice to see breadth indicators improving, but tech is looking strong with the QQQ’s breaking out. With volatility being so low, we looked at some longer term Condors that will be less impacted by a vol spike.
New Case Studies were – AAPL Broken Wing Butterfly with delta hedge, AMZN and TSLA long-term Condors, BHP, XLE and TLT Wheel trades, GOOGL Calendar Spread and an IWM July Trapdoor.
May 17th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Tech continues to show impressive strength, but the lack of breadth in the S&P500 concerns me a little. I feel like the next vol spike could be just around the corner.
New Case Studies today were – AXON Bear Put Spread, BA Diagonal Put Spread, QQQ Butterfly, SCHW Wheel with protection, TSLA Bull Put Spread with Calendar and VIX Butterfly.
May 24th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – So far it’s an orderly pullback but US credit downgrade and debt ceiling issues are causing concern, as is the weak breadth which we have talked about for a few weeks. Volatility is up which makes Condors and Credit Spreads a bit more attractive than they have been.
New Case Studies today were – AMZN and CRM Bull Put Spreads, IWM Trapdoor, LULU Condor, NFLX Bull Put Spread with Calendar Spread, WFC Condor and RUT Rhino.
May 31st, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets continue to be led by tech and anything AI related, but our breadth indicators continue to deteriorate, which is a cause for concern. A good time to be quicker taking profits and losses and not taking on too much risk.
New Case Studies today were – BUD Sold Puts with Delta Hedge, COIN, DRI, TJX and V Bull Put Spreads, RCL Yearly Covered Call, TSLA Poor Man’s Covered Call, UNP Long Strangle and SPY Bear Call Spread (hedge).
Jun 7th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets have paused a little here, but it seems more like rotation with tech pulling back and small caps ripping higher. We’ve also seen a significant improvement in breadth which is a good sign. Vol has broken through the floor with VIX now showing a 13 handle. That was unexpected. It does make Condors a little harder, so trade smaller and go further out in time.
New Case Studies this week were – COF, COIN and NKE Wheel trades with protection, IWM August Trapdoor, JPM Diagonal Put Spread, MS Long Straddle, MU Bull Put Spread, NKE Earnings Wheel trade, QQQ Bearish Calendar and VIX Butterfly.
Jun 14th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The bulls are in control and it feels like a bit of an AI bubble, but as we know, bubbles can last for a while. Volatility is low with VIX below 14, so we looked at some Diagonal Spreads today and talked about how any Condors should be slightly longer-term.
New Case Studies today were – DIS Broken Wing Butterfly with delta hedge, EWA and TLT Wheel trades, NFLX and UNH Diagonal Put Spreads, NVDA and TSM Bull Put Spreads, SHOP Poor Man’s Covered Call and SPY August Condor.
Jun 21st, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – So far, it’s a run of the mill pullback and nothing to be too concerned about. Volatility remains low and we’re still in Contango. Breadth indicators also look ok.
New Case Studies today were – CSCO, NKE and JPN Wheel trades, FSLR Diagonal Put Spread, IWM August Trapdoor, LMT Bull Put Spread, MSFT Trapdoor and RUT Sept Rhino.
Jun 28th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market is holding up well and we’re in heavy contango, so there is no panic whatsoever.
New Case Studies today were – BABA Poor Man’s Covered Put, DKNG and XLE Wheel trades, EEM and NUE Poor Man’s Covered Calls, INTC Short Straddle and SPY 112 trade.
July 5th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market continues its quiet run, but some stocks and indexes are a little extended from their moving averages. In the game of musical chairs, you don’t want to be the last one standing and it’s the same here. I wouldn’t be going aggressively long here, but also wouldn’t be game to go short. Diagonals may be the way to go, and we looked at a few examples today.
New Case Studies were – ANET Condor, COIN Bull Put Spread / Wheel, CRM and TSLA Poor Man’s Covered Calls, HOOD Wheel, and UNH Poor Man’s Covered Put.
July 19th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Everything bullish has been working well and anything bearish has been punished in recent weeks. Breadth looks great, but getting a little extended, so it’s getting a bit late in the bullish party. We should get a little correction soon, but it’s likely to be short-lived.
New Case Studies today were – AMD and SBUX Wheel, ANET Jade Lizard, MSFT Trapdoor and RUT Broken Wing Butterfly.
July 26th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market grind higher continues, and volatility remains suppressed. The rally might be getting a little long in the tooth, so I would watch for a potential 2-7% pullback in the next few weeks. Don’t go full bullish mode right now.
New Case Studies today were – AAPL Earnings Calendar, AMZN Wheel, MSFT Trapdoor, NFLX Diagonal Put Spread, RUT Rhino and SNOW Bearish Calendar.
August 2nd, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Looks like we’re finally getting the correction we’ve all been waiting for. I’m expecting anywhere from 3-10%, maybe 12% at most. Keep an eye on the 50-day moving average and the VIX futures curve.
New Case Studies today were – DIS, HAL and PLTR Wheels, IWM Trapdor, MSFT and MACD Bearish Calendars and SPY Condor.
August 9th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The correction continues and we’re at about 3% on SPX. A 12% correction would put SPX down at 4050, but so far breadth is holding up ok as is the VIX term structure. Still, it’s a good idea to have some negative delta, just in case, to help offset any positive delta.
New Case Studies today were – JNJ and RCL Wheels, AAPL Long-Term Bull Put Spread, MSFT Bear Call Spread, NFLX Bearish Calendar, TGT High Risk Earnings Wheel, TSLA Broken Wing Butterfly, XOM Poor Man’s Covered Call and an SPY Long Put Hedge.
August 16th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The selloff is getting a little more serious now as we’ve seen a deterioration in our breadth indicators and the VIX Term Structure starts to flatten. We’re down 4.4% on SPX so far, so we could have a bit further to run on the downside yet.
New Case Studies today were – ADBE Iron Condor, COF Long-Term Bull Put Spread, GOOGL Diagonal Call Spread, IWM Unbalanced Condor, META Bear Call Spread, MSFT Trapdoor, SPY Condor and TSLA Bear Call Spread.
August 23rd, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – It’s been a nice bounce back in the last few days and with NVDA moving higher after hours, we should see some follow through tomorrow. Still a little early to give the market the all clear, but definitely some positive signs. Would love to see the indexes get back above their 50-day moving averages and also an improvement in the SPX 50-day MA breadth.
New Case Studies today were – AVGO, CRM and MRVL Earnings Diagonal Put Spreads, AMZN, GOOGL and META Bull Put Spreads, IWM Trapdoor, ROKU Bear Call Spread and UBER Unbalanced Condor.
August 30th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Huge move higher for the markets this week with a number of stocks showing strength and the indexes getting back above their 50-day moving averages. Would like to see some improvement in breadth, but so far we’re looking a lot better than we were a few weeks ago.
New Case Studies today were – AAPL Bullish Calendar, NFLX and NVDA Bull Put Spreads, O and PLTR Wheel trades, QQQ Condor and RUT November Rhino.
September 6th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – There was a pretty strong reversal today and we’re seeing weakness in our breadth indicators, so definitely some cause for concern. IBD still has us in a confirmed uptrend though, and the VIX Term Structure is not showing any signs of panic. But, we did see some big bearish breakdowns in large stocks like AAPL, MCD, UPS and AMGN. As such we added all negative delta trades today, to help offset positive delta elsewhere.
New Case Studies were – AMD and MRNA Bear Call Spreads, AMGN Poor Man’s Covered Put, PYPL and UPS Bear Put Spreads.
September 13th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market is holding up ok, but the weak breadth is a slight concern at the moment. Volatility is very low which and a lot of stocks have earnings within the October 20 expiration which makes finding trades on individual stocks a little tricky.
New Case Studies today were – AAPL and AMZN Unbalanced Condors, GS Earnings Calendar, IWM and MSFT Trapdoors and an OIH Condor.
September 20th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market has taken a bearish turn with indexes closing near the lows and breaking key levels. For that reason we looked at all bearish trades today. We also had the pleasure of hearing from one of our awesome members, Jim Bland. Jim shared some great information about how he approaches 0 DTE SPX trades. Well worth the watch if you weren’t able to attend live.
New Case Studies today were – ABNB and QQQ Bearish Calendars, IWM Poor Man’s Covered Put and SPX Bear Call Spread.
September 27th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – There were some positive signs today with small caps bouncing and stocks like PLTR having big moves higher. SPX is down around 8% from the highs, so if this is just a bull market correction, we may see stocks start to recover soon. The 200-day moving average is just below as well which might provide some support.
New Case Studies today were – COST Unbalanced Condor, IWM Dec Trapdoor, OXY Wheel. RUT Dec Rhino, SPY Dec Condor and UBER Unbalanced Condor.
October 4th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – We had a nice bounce today and strong moves in some stocks like TSLA, but we’re not 100% out of the woods. Volatility is high compared to the last 6 months so Iron Condors are good right now, just watch for earnings dates on individual stocks, or use Indexes/ETFs.
It’s also a good idea to go longer term as anything short term will get hit hard from any futher vol spike or large price move.
New Case Studies today were – AMD Unbalanced Condor, LEN Bear Call Spread, OIH Nov Condor, QQQ Dec Condor and ZM Long Strangle.
October 11th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets are looking calmer with volatility dropping, but we still have fairly weak breadth readings and a lot of stocks / indexes have declining 50-day moving averages above to deal with.
New Case Studies this week were – MCD Bull Put Spread, MSFT Dec Trapdoor, OXY Wheel, QQQ Poor Man’s Covered Put (hedge Trade), TLT Poor Man’s Covered Call, UNH High-Risk Earnings Diagonal and UPS Unbalanced Condor.
October 18th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Markets took a bearish turn today and it looks like we might be headed for another test of the 200-day MA on SPX.
New Case Studies today were – ABNB, IWM, SNOW and SPY Poor Man’s Covered Puts, MSFT Diagonal Put Spread for earnings, SPX and QQQ Condors. These can be stand alone trades, but also hedge trades for any positive delta trades.
October 25th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Some nasty moves today and it looks like SPX wants to head towards the 4100 level. Thankfully, the bearish trades from last week have performed very well to offset losses on other positive delta trades.
New Case Studies today were – BA Unbalanced Condor, CRM Bearish Diagonal, DE Jan Condor, GOOGL Bear Call Spread, GS Dec Condor, SPY Jan Condor and RUT Jan Rhino.
November 1st, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market responded positively to Powell’s statement today, lead by high Beta names like AMD, NVDA and ANET.
IBD has changed there recommended allocation to 20-40% from 0-20% which is a good sign, but we’re not full out of the woods yet. SPX stalled right at the 200-day moving average, so it will be interesting to see how the market responds to that level in the next few days.
New Case Studies today were – ADBE, AMD and XOM Bull Put Spreads, AMT Wheel with Protection, DIS Earnings Diagonal and NVDA Broken Wing Butterfly.
November 8th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Has this been a bear market rally, or the start of a sustained bull move? We should know more in the next week or so. Breadth indicators are still fairly weak, but risk on sectors like tech are doing well, so there are some mixed signals.
New Case Studies today were – ABNB and TEAM Bear Call Spreads, CVX and TLT Bull Put Spreads, INTC Wheel, MSFT Trapdoor, QQQ Jan Condor and TGT Earnings Diagonal.
November 15th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market continues to like what it sees in terms of rates and inflation. Some breadth indicators are back over 50% which is good, but the market probably does need a bit of a pause here.
New Case Studies today were – BA Bear Put Debit Spread, BAC Short-Term Wheel Trade, CVX Bull Put Spread, IWM Trapdoor, LLY Condor, NFLX Broken Wing Butterfly, NVDA High-Risk Earnings Bull Put Spread and TSLA Bull Put Spread.
November 22nd, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The market has come a long way in a short space of time and probably needs a bit of a pause here. Volatility is also the lowest we have seen in the last 6 months, so not a great time to be selling condors in my opinion.
New Case Studies today were – AMCN Wheel Trade, CRM, CRWD and SNOW Earnings Diagonals, NFLX Bear Call Spread, MSFT Jan Trapdoor and RUT Feb Rhino.
November 29th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – It’s all about tech at the moment with some big post earnings moves this week. Volatility is still extremely low, so there isn’t much value being an option seller right now which means we have to be very selective with trades…. or just yolo into long calls.
New Case Studies this week were – AVGO, ORCL and ULTA Earnings Diagonal Put Spreads, LMT Bear Put Spread, SPX Weekly Double Butterfly, TSLA Poor Man’s Covered Call and RUT Bearish Butterfly.
December 6th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – Bit of a nasty pullback today, but looking at our breadth indicators, everything is ok for now. We might see a few days moving lower, but at this stage nothing to be too concerned about.
There is not a lot of value in selling options right now with IV so low, but I think we came up with some good ideas today.
New Case Studies were – ADBE Earnings Bull Put Spread, COIN and META Bear Call Spreads, IWM Bearish Calendar, PFE Wheel, TSLA Reverse Iron Condor and RUT Feb Rhino #2.
December 13th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – We had a huge response to the Fed announcement today with markets rocketing higher. Great for wheel trade and anything with positive delta, but not so great for bearish or delta neutral trades. We have a lot of positive delta Case Studies today which will help to offset some negative delta elsewhere.
New Case Studies were – CAT, IYR, LLY, NVDA, UNH and XLE Bull Put Spreads, GOOGL Broken Wing Butterfly, PYPL Wheel and VIX Call Butterfly.
December 20th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – That was a big reversal today, but so far it’s just normal profit taking in an uptrend. We may see some follow through to the downside over the next couple of days.
New Case Studies today were – BA, COIN, FDX, NFLX and SPX Bear Call Spreads, GOOGL Bull Put Spread and IWM Trapdoor.
December 27th, 2023 – Weekly Strategy Session – The bull market marches on and all our breadth indicators are looking strong, but getting towards extreme levels. After such a great run, it’s hugely important not to give back any recent profits, so watch your risk levels.
New Case Studies today were – AMZN, CELH and EWZ Wheel Trades, CME Poor Man’s Covered Call, ISRG, RIVN and PYPL Bull Put Spreads and TSLA Calendar.